- Mr. Joel Donkoh, a communication team member of the Hemang Lower Denkyira Constituency, has advised NPP delegates to be cautious in selecting the party’s 2028 flagbearer. He based his caution on historical voting patterns under the 4th Republic, which show that Ghanaians don’t elect presidents from the same region consecutively.
ANALYSIS OF PRESIDENTIAL VOTING PATTERNS UNDER THE 4TH REPUBLIC:
1992 – 2001: Jerry John Rawlings (Volta Region) – NDC
2001 – 2009: John Agyekum Kufuor (Ashanti Region) – NPP
2009 – 2012: John Evans Atta Mills (Central Region) – NDC
2012 – 2017: John Dramani Mahama (Northern Region) – NDC
2017 – 2025: Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo (Eastern Region) – NPP
2025 – 2028: John Dramani Mahama (Northern Region) – NDC
From this trend, leadership has alternated among different regions, and after Mahama’s second opportunity as president, voters are less likely to elect another candidate from the North immediately.
WHY IS NPP INSISTING ON A NORTHERNER AS FLAGBEARER?
1️⃣ Regional Voting Sentiment: Historical data indicates that after Mahama’s presidency, voters may not favor another northern candidate in 2028.
2️⃣ Electoral Miscalculation: To win in 2028, NPP must choose a flagbearer who can appeal strongly in swing regions like Central, Greater Accra, and Western, while consolidating Ashanti and Eastern bases.
3️⃣ Weak Base Mobilization: A northern candidate may fail to fully energize NPP’s core strongholds in Ashanti and Eastern regions, which are crucial for victory.
4️⃣ Perception of Regional Balance: Ghanaians often prefer fairness in regional leadership. Two successive northern presidents may be seen as unfair dominance by one region.
THE WAY FORWARD FOR NPP
✅ Select a flagbearer with both grassroots strength and national appeal.
✅ Avoid repeating the 2024 mistake that weakened support in key strongholds.
✅ Respect the political mood and regional voting dynamics of Ghanaians.
Mr. Donkoh emphasized that NPP must strategically rethink its choice of flagbearer instead of insisting on a northern candidate, NPP lost unparalleled feat with 199 out of the 275 constituencies as this could cost the party victory in 2028.
